Jones Knows is back for the two midweek Premier League games and identifies an angle that brings forward the case of Brentford scoring late vs Southampton.
Southampton vs Brentford, Tuesday 7.45pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
My two angles for this clash revolve taking on Southampton and thinking there is juice in the market regarding a low-scoring affair. Saints have an elite manager who is yet again creating an environment where players are flourishing to the extent where relegation is not even in the conversation despite a significant lack of investment in the playing squad.
However, at odds of 19/20 with Sky Bet for a home win, they are easily opposable considering they have won just two of their nine matches at St Mary’s this season.
Goals have been scarce at St Mary’s, too. Only Wolves’ home games have seen an overall lower average of goals per game than Southampton’s with just 1.89 goals scored per 90 minutes this season. Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Sky Bet is worth a look.
Southampton’s poor second-half record also points to Brentford scoring the last goal of the game at 6/4 with Sky Bet being an interesting betting angle. It’s a bet that would have landed in eight of Southampton’s last nine fixtures for starters.
Ralph Hasenhutt’s team are famed for their starts but tend to run out of gas as the final whistle approaches. If second halves only counted this season Saints would be second bottom with only seven goals scored. On the flip side, Brentford have the seventh-best second-half record in the Premier League and no team have conceded fewer goals than them after the break (8). With Bryan Mbeumo back to partner Ivan Toney, the Bees have the firepower to punish a sloppy second-half showing from the flaky hosts and score the last goal of the game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Brentford to score the last goal of the game (6/4 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Norwich, Wednesday 7.45pm – Watch free highlights of this game after full time
Backing Norwich to lose without scoring has been the staple of my betting diet over the past two months. It’s copped five games in a row, all at odds-against prices. However, timing is everything when it comes to jumping on and off a particular profitable angle and having watched the Canaries in most of those defeats, an end to their goal drought looks on the cards.
In that five-game barren run, Norwich have actually posted an expected goals figure of 4.08 which tells us that a mixture of bad finishing and a little bit of variance is to blame for their timid goals return rather than a problem with their chance creation metrics. The return of Teemu Pukki and Milot Rashica certainly will help matters. Both sprung from the bench to add much-needed quality to Norwich’s attack in the 1-0 FA Cup win over Charlton on Sunday.
I have got no interest in backing Norwich in the match results markets against such a ruthless side like West Ham but they are worth a look in the shots and goals department at the advertised prices. Both teams to score at Evens with Sky Bet looks a tad juicy to me.
West Ham are also facing a lot of shots on their goal over the past month.
Without Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna they are defending deeper than usual with Craig Dawson’s lack of pace a potential weakness, so opposition teams are finding territory easy to come by. The Hammers have faced a whopping 16 shots per 90 minutes in their last six fixtures.
Norwich’s shots line has been set at 10+ shots with Evens available with Sky Bet. Although they lack quality in the final third, Smith’s style is a forward-thinking one and they have posted 10 or more shots in all three of their away games under their new boss at Newcastle (16), Tottenham (10) and Crystal Palace (12). Combining both teams to score and Norwich to get 10 or more shots away at 4/1 should give you a great run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Both teams to score and Norwich to have 10 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet)